Dem operative sees Senate flip likely

Dan Turrentine, a former chief of staff to Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, told Fox News Digital that Democrats have a strong probability of winning control of the Senate five days before the election. He attributed this potential shift to a combination of effective Democratic campaigning and what he described as poor candidate quality on the Republican side.

Turrentine, who hosts a podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, identified four specific Republican candidates as weak links in their respective races. He cited Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Darlene Graham Nordone in South Carolina. "If Republicans lose the Senate, it’s likely one of those four loses," he said. He added that while presidential approval ratings play a role, the decisive factor is often the local candidate's strength.

North Carolina stands out as a prime target for a Democratic flip. Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, leaving the seat open. Former Gov. Roy Cooper currently holds a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley in polling data. Turrentine noted that the state has historically favored Republicans but is trending toward the Democrats in this cycle.

Other closely watched contests include Ohio, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, and Missouri. Turrentine suggested that Democrats could secure a majority by winning Ohio, Texas, and one of the other listed states. He acknowledged uncertainty regarding Alaska, a state where the party had high hopes. A recent report in The New York Times alleged that Democratic candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a man named Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan to confuse voters. Peltola has denied involvement, but Turrentine now views the race as a tossup.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson trails incumbent Sen. Susan Collins by four points in a recent CNN poll. Turrentine expressed a preference for other states to decide the majority, noting that Maine and Alaska are less desirable venues for a final seat determination. He warned that polling has been unreliable in recent election cycles, citing difficulties in reaching voters who no longer use landlines and ignore unknown numbers.

Turrentine also addressed internal party dynamics that may arise if Democrats take control. He pointed to a tension between moderate leaders and the party base. He specifically mentioned House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would become speaker if Democrats win the House. "Nobody knows where Hakeem Jeffries comes down. And no one knows who Hakeem Jeffries is," Turrentine said. He noted that Jeffries faces questions from both wings of the party, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer watches for a potential primary challenge from the left.

The current Senate balance is 53-47 in favor of Republicans. Democrats are widely projected to lose their slim majority in the House. The outcome of Tuesday's election will determine which party sets the legislative agenda and leads the confirmation process for federal appointments.