Israel and the Lebanese Iran-backed Islamist group Hezbollah are ramping up cross-border attacks after months of low-intensity fighting, prompting the Israeli military to warn this week that it is prepared to launch a large-scale attack on its northern border.
With both sides trading fire for more than eight months, experts say Israel feels it can no longer ignore its northern front or delay taking action there.
A full-blown war appears to have become more likely – even if both sides have no desire for one, analysts believe.
Here’s what we know:
Why are Israel and Hezbollah fighting?
Lebanon and Israel have officially been in a state of war for decades. Israel launched a devastating invasion of Lebanon in 1982, sending tanks all the way to the capital Beirut, after coming under attack from Palestinian militants in the country. It then occupied southern Lebanon for 22 years until it was driven out by Hezbollah in 2000. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is officially considered a “resistance” group tasked with confronting Israel, which Beirut classifies as an enemy state. Much of the Western world has designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization.
Since then, the two sides have traded fire sporadically, but tensions boiled over in 2006 when Israel went to war in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. More than 1,000 Lebanese were killed in that conflict, mostly civilians, as well as 49 Israeli civilians and 121 soldiers. Two years later, Hezbollah returned the remains of the kidnapped soldiers in exchange for the release of Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, as well as the bodies of militants Israel was holding.
The latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah started after Hamas led an attack on Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250, according to Israeli authorities. That prompted Israel to go to war with Hamas in Gaza, during which it has levelled much of the territory and killed more than 36,000 Palestinians. Hezbollah has said that its current round of fighting with Israel is to support the Palestinians in Gaza.
The military capability of the Lebanese group has grown since 2006, when it relied largely on inaccurate Soviet-era Katyusha rockets. Today, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah says his group boasts more than 100,000 fighters and reservists. The group is also believed to possess 150,000 rockets that could overwhelm Israel’s defenses if an all-out war breaks out.
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