Week 9 Upsets Reshape College Football Playoff and Bowl Projections

Another weekend of upsets shook up the college football landscape in Week 9. The reigning national champions escaped with yet another overtime win, while three ranked Big Ten teams went down in defeat.

As in Week 8, five ranked teams lost to unranked opponents on Saturday. Syracuse and Oregon each claimed a major conference win at home. Iowa State beat No. 24 Oklahoma State, and Iowa topped No. 25 Wisconsin. The biggest result came at USC, where Lincoln Riley's Trojans stunned No. 2 Ohio State at home. It was Riley's first AP top-five win as USC's coach.

The results have shifted the postseason picture, and ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have updated their projections. They will publish predictions for every postseason matchup each week until the real pairings are set on Dec. 6.

The 2026 season brings a new playoff structure. The champions of the Power 4 conferences receive automatic bids to the 12-team College Football Playoff, along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, whether or not it won its league. The other seven spots go to the next highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a place if it finishes among the top 12.

The four highest-ranked teams, who are not necessarily conference champions, earn first-round byes. The remaining eight teams play first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8. Those games are scheduled for Dec. 18 and 19.

In the first round, Bonagura projects Boise State at BYU, Ohio State at Notre Dame, Alabama at Indiana and Wake Forest at Kentucky. Schlabach has Boise State at Kentucky, Indiana at Notre Dame, Wake Forest at BYU and Alabama at Texas.

Both analysts keep Miami at No. 1 and have it reaching the national championship game, set for Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Bonagura picks Utah as its opponent, while Schlabach chooses Georgia. For the semifinals, Bonagura has Georgia against Miami in the Orange Bowl and UCLA against Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Schlabach has Utah against Miami and Notre Dame against Georgia.

Bowl season opens Dec. 12 with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Bonagura projects South Carolina State against Jackson State, while Schlabach has South Carolina State facing Alabama A&M. The two agree on several other pairings, including Iowa against LSU in the Citrus Bowl, Michigan against Cincinnati in the Cactus Bowl and SMU against Houston in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

They differ in other places. For the Valero Alamo Bowl, Bonagura sees Texas Tech against Oregon, while Schlabach has Texas Tech against USC. Both send Wisconsin to the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl, with Bonagura pairing it with Ole Miss and Schlabach with South Carolina.