Brussels projects ambitious 2027 timeline for Ukraine despite stalled domestic reforms

The European Commission has published its annual Enlargement Report, presenting a notably optimistic outlook for Ukraine's path to EU membership. Despite acknowledging that the pace of reforms in Kyiv has slowed significantly over the past year, the report records the largest increase in Ukraine's readiness score in its history. This assessment includes critical Fundamentals chapters and is accompanied by new roadmaps for the four most advanced candidate countries: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine.

The Commission's optimism is grounded in a belief that Ukraine will overcome its current parliamentary deadlock. Brussels expects Kyiv to fulfill all Interim Benchmark Assessment and Recommendation (IBAR) indicators in the first quarter of 2027. This achievement would grant Ukraine the right to begin closing negotiation chapters in the first half of the year. The roadmap specifically targets the closure of seven chapters by the end of 2027, covering areas such as education, intellectual property, and foreign policy.

A key factor in this timeline is the competitive dynamic among candidate nations. Moldova has effectively overtaken Ukraine in reform progress, leading the Commission to avoid setting a specific accession date for Kyiv. Instead, it left the timeline open to allow room for acceleration. This approach was taken to prevent the politically awkward scenario of suggesting Moldova could join the EU before Ukraine, even though the approved documents confirm Moldova's more advanced status.

The improved assessment for Ukraine, particularly in anti-corruption efforts, is attributed less to government legislation and more to the work of independent institutions. The Commission noted that agencies like the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office continued to deliver results despite a lack of new legislative frameworks. EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová highlighted that significant progress occurred in the autumn, justifying the positive evaluation in the report.

However, the current pace of reforms remains a challenge. A study by the Ukrainian Centre for European Policy indicates that Kyiv has completed only 20 percent of the tasks required for IBAR since June. To meet the Commission's targets, Ukraine must complete the remaining 80 percent in the same timeframe. This involves finalizing key rule of law and anti-corruption commitments, often referred to as the Kachka-Kos list, for which recent internal assessments have given Parliament a low score of just above 20 out of 100.

The broader enlargement strategy has evolved to distinguish between serious and nominal candidates. The EU has formalized this distinction by identifying the four leading countries with the agreement of all member states. While Montenegro is expected to sign its accession treaty by June 2027, no specific final dates were set for the other three. This flexibility allows the EU to support Ukraine's integration while acknowledging the significant institutional changes required to admit a new member state of Ukraine's size.

Ukrainian officials remain more ambitious than their European counterparts. Ihor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of the Office of the President, stated that Ukraine aims to receive a positive IBAR assessment as early as March 2027. He also suggested the possibility of closing multiple chapters by mid-year, exceeding the Commission's baseline expectation. This aggressive target relies on the assumption that Kyiv can accelerate its legislative process significantly in the coming months.

The report serves as a clear signal to Kyiv that while the door to the EU is open, it requires sustained and visible progress. The Commission's creative approach to assessing autumn reforms, along with its recognition of civil society's role, underscores a pragmatic stance. The goal is to keep Ukraine within the current wave of enlargement, provided that the necessary political will and legislative actions materialize in the near future.