Patriots favored to beat Dolphins in stormy AFC East clash

The AFC East features a mismatch in Week 8, with the 4-3 New England Patriots hosting the 1-5 Miami Dolphins at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Prediction markets on Polymarket price the odds of a New England victory at 75%, while a Miami win trades at 25%. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, aligns with this outlook, showing the Dolphins winning in only 33% of scenarios.

New England enters the game following a loss to the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football, which ended a three-game winning streak. Before that defeat, quarterback Drake Maye had guided the team to a 3-1 record in their last four contests. The Patriots currently trail the Buffalo Bills by 1.5 games in the division race, though they defeated the Bills in their only meeting this season.

Miami secured its first win of the season last week by defeating the New York Jets 28-25 at the Meadowlands. The Dolphins have shown marked improvement in their offense, scoring 24 and 28 points in their last two games after averaging fewer than 13 points per game from Weeks 1 through 4. Quarterback Malik Willis has recorded five total touchdowns during this two-week span.

Betting markets suggest a moderate margin of victory for New England. The probability of the Patriots winning by more than 6.5 points stands at 52%, while the chance of them covering that spread or losing is 48%. New England has covered this line in three of its four victories this season. The SportsLine model indicates that the Patriots win by more than 6.5 points in the majority of its simulations.

The game is also likely to be high-scoring. Both teams have exceeded 43.5 total points in their most recent games. New England's last four contests all resulted in more than 43.5 points, and the same holds true for Miami's last two. The SportsLine model projects that these two rivals will combine for at least 44 points in over 60% of simulations. On Polymarket, the market for more than 43.5 total points is split evenly at 50% for both outcomes.

Weather in South Florida could impact the game, as stormy conditions are expected for the 4:25 p.m. kickoff. The match pits a resurgent New England offense against a Miami team that has stabilized its scoring output over the final two weeks. The outcome will determine the next step in the AFC East standings for both squads.