Vance Sends Letter to Iran's Security Chief as Trump Tells Gulf Allies to Prepare

US Vice President JD Vance has sent a letter to Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, in a last-minute attempt to revive peace talks, according to US media reports. The letter has reportedly been "received well" by Iran.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the outreach aims to test whether Washington and Tehran can narrow their differences enough to head off a new round of US strikes. It comes as Donald Trump is said to be telling Gulf allies to brace for a brief, high-intensity campaign following next week's US midterm elections. Trump has previously suggested the US may "do another little Epic Fury", a reference to the military operation against Iran that began in February.

The letter itself has not been published. An informed source told the Journal that it and follow-up discussions did not cover specific peace terms, but a possible "framework for negotiations". Another source said the goal was to find enough common ground to persuade Trump not to give a final order for a short, intense attack on Iran in the coming weeks.

The New York Times reported that Vance proposed an early meeting between US and Iranian officials, with himself leading the American delegation as he did in talks held in June. Qatari mediators reportedly passed the letter to Rezaei, who heads Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on Sunday. US and Iranian officials quoted by the media said Vance called for direct talks and insisted Iran's nuclear programme be on the table from the start. If Iran agrees, talks could happen as soon as next week, with Qatar or Turkiye named as possible venues.

Iran has not commented publicly on the letter. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post on Wednesday that Iran "continues to give diplomacy a chance". The Times reported that Rezaei is expected to respond formally on Thursday.

Analysts see significance in the choice of recipient. Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group said it could indicate that Washington believes shifts in Tehran's internal power balance have improved the prospects of engaging directly with Rezaei.

Vance has generally appeared more wary of prolonged conflict with Iran than Trump, according to US media reports, and has reportedly voiced private concerns about the drawn-out war. Messaging on Trump's role has been mixed. The Journal said Trump directed Vance to send the letter, but Trump later disputed that, saying he approved outreach to help Iran "with medical supplies and various things".

Ali Vaez, also of the International Crisis Group, said Tehran sees Vance as someone with the president's ear and an appreciation of the price of failure, but that "a more credible messenger alone cannot bridge a chasm of substantive disagreements." Iran analyst Rouzbeh Parsi called Vance the "voice of reason" in the administration, yet said his position has "never proven to be sturdy enough to actually sway Trump". Azizi noted that two wars have occurred in less than a year despite Vance's objections.

The warning to Gulf states comes as Tehran has repeatedly threatened a harsher response to any new US-Israeli attacks, including strikes on oil sites, undersea cables, data centres and AI facilities in the Gulf. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, said on October 21 that Iran's strategy is "zero red lines". Saudi, Qatari, Pakistani and Turkish officials took part in talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday.

Many analysts consider a US strike after the November 3 midterms likely. Vaez called the risk "dangerously high" and said Trump is more likely to become a "flame duck" than a lame duck. Parsi warned that a new campaign could bring greater devastation and bloodshed.