Netanyahu Bloc Leads Israeli Vote Count, but Neither Side Has a Clear Path to a Majority

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc held its lead in Israel's election count and was projected to win 53 seats in the next Knesset, while the opposition bloc was projected to take 48, the Central Elections Committee reported on Wednesday evening. More than five million votes from Tuesday's election had been counted at that point.

Neither side reached the 61 seats needed for a majority without the support of Arab parties, which had won a record combined total of 19 seats at the last count. The official tally stood at about 88% and did not yet include double-envelope ballots, which were due to be counted overnight. Those ballots let eligible Israelis such as soldiers, hospital patients, prisoners and certain election workers vote outside their assigned polling stations, and they could significantly affect the final results.

Netanyahu's Likud was projected to win 26 seats, making it the largest party again. United Torah Judaism, Shas and Otzma Yehudit were each expected to take seven seats, and the Religious Zionist Party six. Most television polls before the vote had given Likud considerably fewer seats and the other parties in the bloc more.

In the opposition bloc, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar was projected to win 21 seats, Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad 12, Yair Golan's The Democrats eight and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu seven. Pre-election polls had mostly shown the opposition ahead, with Yashar as the biggest party. Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's The Reservists-Economic party were both projected to miss the 3.25% threshold, which could further complicate Netanyahu's path to a majority. The Joint List was projected at 12 seats and Ra'am at seven.

Amid high Arab turnout, Likud accused Arab parties on Wednesday of stealing the election through fraud, bribery, intimidation and ballot manipulation, and demanded an immediate investigation by law enforcement.

A unity government of Netanyahu and Eisenkot looks unlikely. Eisenkot has refused to serve under Netanyahu, including in a rotation arrangement, and other opposition leaders have ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. The deadlock could lead to another election, though coalition talks may still produce a deal. By law, the president must consult the Knesset factions before choosing who will try to form a government.

President Isaac Herzog urged political leaders to come to the consultations with open minds. "We must do everything, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," he said.

Golan said he would meet "three opposition leaders" on Thursday, without naming them. He also urged the opposition to form a government with the Arab parties, arguing that Netanyahu lost with about 55 seats against the opposition's 65 including the Arab parties. "I know how to count to 120," he wrote on social media. Other opposition leaders have said Arab parties in government would be a redline for them after the October 7 massacre in 2023, and Liberman openly rejected the idea before the election. Eisenkot has said the leader of the largest opposition party should be its candidate for prime minister, though the bloc has announced no agreement on that.

A minority government that wins a confidence vote without 61 seats is also possible, with Arab parties potentially backing the opposition. Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said his party was ready to "pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government," and MK Ahmad Tibi said the opposition could form a government "if it has the courage." Bennett, whose 2021 government with Yair Lapid was the first to include an Arab party, Ra'am, has since taken a firm stance against including any Arab faction in a future coalition.