College Football Fans See Most One-Score Games in 50 Years
Data shows conference play has become the tightest it has been since 1973, with 30 games decided by a single score in the last week alone.
By Nia Foster ·
College football fans watching conference games this season are seeing fewer blowouts and more coin-flip finishes than at any point in the last half century. Last week, 30 Bowl Subdivision conference games ended with a one-score margin. Sportradar data indicates this is the highest weekly total recorded since at least 1973.
The trend continues through Week 8 of the season. A total of 128 conference games have concluded with a difference of eight points or fewer. This figure marks the highest count at this stage of a season since 1973. It is also 32 more than the number of one-score games recorded at the same point last year. The average point differential in these conference matchups has dropped to 13.9, which is also the lowest figure since the early 1970s.
The Power Four conferences drive this shift in scoring. These leagues account for 69 of the one-score games so far this season. The ACC leads the group, with 20 of its 39 conference games finishing within one score. That represents a 51% rate. The Big Ten follows closely, with 19 of its 38 games (50%) ending in a one-score margin. The SEC has seen 17 of its 39 games (44%) and the Big 12 has seen 13 of its 33 games (39%) finish by a single score.
This week's schedule includes several matchups projected to remain close. Iowa, which has beaten Wisconsin in four straight meetings and outscored the Badgers 79-10 in the last two, is picked to win 14-13. The Hawkeyes will play without running back Kamari Moulton, who is out for the season. Boise State is expected to edge its opponent 42-40 in a game that may come down to the final possession.
Other tight finishes are expected in different regions. Northwestern, under first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, is picked to beat Oregon 30-27. Kelly previously led Oregon to a 46-7 record between 2009 and 2012. Arizona, which holds a five-game winning streak, is favored to beat Texas Tech 34-24. The Sun Devils have not won in Lubbock since 1935.
Some games are projected to be less competitive. Miami is favored by a wide margin over North Carolina, while Ohio State is picked to win on the West Coast without quarterback Julian Sayin. Georgia is expected to beat Florida 27-17 after an upset loss to Auburn. Notre Dame is projected to defeat Navy 45-14. Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, and Houston are on byes this week.
The betting picks for last week went 10-7 straight up. For the season, the picks stand at 100-39 straight up and 68-69-2 against the spread.
Source: ABC News
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