Inflation and loyalty drove GOP losses

The 2026 midterm elections resulted in Democratic control of both chambers of Congress, driven primarily by voter frustration with inflation and a perception that the Republican Party prioritized loyalty over competence. An AP Voter Poll conducted across all 50 states reveals that while Democrats won the day, their advantage on key issues remains narrow. The results suggest that voters were less motivated by a love for the Democratic Party and more by a desire to penalize the incumbent administration for unfulfilled economic promises.

Economic strain was the decisive factor in the voting booth. Nationally, roughly two-thirds of voters stated that President Trump's policies, including his tariffs and the war in Iran, worsened the economy. Among those who felt the economy had deteriorated, approximately 80% voted for the Democratic candidate in their local House race. The impact was visible in household budgets, with many voters citing grocery bills, gas prices, and utility costs as the primary drivers of their choice.

The economic toll was particularly evident in Republican strongholds. In Texas, about 20% of voters reported that inflation imposed severe hardship on their families. Of that group, approximately 75% supported Democrat James Talarico for the Senate. A further 60% reported moderate hardship, and Talarico also secured the majority support from this demographic. This pattern of economic dissatisfaction translating into Democratic votes repeated in states across the country.

Voters also expressed deep concern over government corruption, with more than half of respondents identifying it as a crucial factor in their congressional vote. This sentiment was higher than the share of voters who cited the cost of living as their top priority, a notable finding given that 60% of voters reported being very concerned about the price of food. Many voters viewed President Trump as focused on his personal financial interests, citing his earnings from cryptocurrency and his solicitation of donations for the White House ballroom. About two-thirds of voters said Trump did not have the right priorities, and the overwhelming majority of these voters backed Democratic House candidates.

The Republican Party faced criticism for selecting candidates who lacked experience or suffered from personal scandals. In South Carolina, following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, the President endorsed his sister, Darline Graham, to fill the seat. About 60% of voters in that race said she lacked the necessary experience for the Senate. In Texas, the President backed Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Despite Paxton having been impeached in the past, about two-thirds of Texas Senate voters said he lacked the character to serve in the office.

Loyalty to the President became a liability for Republican nominees in several states. In North Carolina, about 60% of voters described Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley as too supportive of Trump. Those voters instead chose former Governor Roy Cooper. The data suggests that voters in swing districts were not necessarily choosing Democrats because they were more popular, but because they viewed them as a vehicle for change. In Maine, voters who prioritized 'needed change' favored Democrat Troy Jackson, while those who prioritized experience chose Republican Susan Collins.

The poll indicates that Democrats will face a difficult task in maintaining their mandate. About 70% of voters, including 40% of Republicans, said Congress has not done enough to check the power of the presidency. However, only about half of all voters hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, compared to roughly 40% who view the Republican Party positively. Many voters expressed skepticism toward both major parties, with about 20% stating that neither party was better equipped to handle the economy, healthcare, or immigration.

The survey was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press and other news organizations from October 19 to November 3. It blends probability and non-probability interviews with registered voters in all 50 states. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 0.6 percentage points.