Israel's new parliament lacks a clear prime minister path

Israeli voters have cast their ballots, but the results leave the country without a designated prime minister. The new parliament, known as the Knesset, now has 120 members, yet neither major political camp secured the 61 seats required to govern. This stalemate forces party leaders into high-stakes negotiations to form a coalition before the current administration dissolves.

The numbers create a complex puzzle for the two main contenders. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, both fell short of a majority. Meanwhile, Arab-led parties won a historic total of 19 seats. This bloc holds the potential to tip the balance of power, making their participation a central factor in the upcoming talks.

One potential path involves Eisenkot joining forces with these Arab parties. On paper, such an alliance would provide a solid 67-seat majority against Netanyahu. However, this option carries political risk for Eisenkot and his Jewish allies. Israel’s Arab citizens, who make up 20% of the population, are Palestinians whose families remained in the country after the 1948 war. Many Jewish Israelis view them with suspicion due to their close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Netanyahu is already framing any such alliance as a threat to Israel’s Jewish identity and national security.

An alternative scenario is a unity government where Netanyahu persuades Eisenkot and right-leaning allies to join his side. This arrangement could also yield a 67-seat majority, pushing Arab parties and ultra-Orthodox factions to the opposition. While this might allow the government to tackle issues like military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, it would require Eisenkot to break promises. His camp has vowed not to govern with Netanyahu, citing the security failures surrounding the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and his ongoing corruption trial.

Netanyahu may also look to poach defectors from the opposition bloc. He could target former allies like right-wing leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman. Both men support nationalist policies and might find it difficult to partner with Arab parties. However, they have clashed personally with Netanyahu for years and are opposed to the military exemptions that ultra-Orthodox allies demand. Eisenkot has fewer such options, as Netanyahu’s base has remained fiercely loyal.

If negotiations fail, Israel will likely hold new elections early next year. Netanyahu’s government would remain in a caretaker role until then. This outcome could hurt his opponents, who gained momentum from tens of thousands of Israelis who flew in from abroad to vote. Netanyahu would gain time to shore up his coalition, potentially benefiting from smaller right-wing parties that failed to meet the parliamentary threshold.