Deadlock: 53 seats leave Israel without a clear path to power

53 seats. That is the total number of Knesset seats secured by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc in the final results published by the Central Elections Committee on Friday. The tally falls seven seats short of the 61 required to form a government in the 120-member parliament. The opposition grouping led by Gadi Eisenkot holds 48 seats. Neither side possesses a standalone majority, leaving the country in a political impasse.

The October 27 vote drew a turnout of 77.9 percent. Political consultations to build a governing coalition are currently underway. If these efforts fail, President Isaac Herzog must designate a candidate with the best chance to form a government. That candidate receives approximately 28 days to assemble a coalition. This period can be extended. If the first attempt fails, Herzog may appoint a second candidate. Should that also fail, a 21-day window opens for 61 Knesset members to request a new assignment.

The two largest lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel hold the balance of power. The United Arab List and the Joint List combined for 19 seats. Netanyahu has ruled out partnering with these groups. He posted on X on Friday, “It is forbidden to form a government with them.” His Likud party accused the Arab-led lists of stealing the election. Eisenkot has stated he would only partner with parties that recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and support national service. He has not specified whether the Arab lists meet these criteria.

Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the hard-right Yisrael Beytenu party, also rejected certain alliances. He said, “Neither Bibi nor Tibi,” referencing Netanyahu and Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List. Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List declared his party ready to oust the Netanyahu government. He described the current administration as one of bloodshed and proposed a Jewish-Arab partnership. Analysts note that the Arab parties are more pragmatic than their counterparts. Ra’am has indicated openness to joining an Eisenkot-led government. The Joint List has left open the possibility of supporting a minority government from outside the coalition.

Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University, said the numbers do not add up for any single side. He noted rumors that Eisenkot might seek Arab support in an investiture vote in exchange for financial investment in their communities. Zur added that this scenario is unlikely due to objections from Lieberman. Nimrod Flaschenberg, a Berlin-based analyst, identified three potential paths for cooperation. The first involves Arab parties joining the government. The second involves them serving as coalition members without government seats, a model used in the 2021-2022 Bennet government. The third involves outside support to prevent the government from falling.

Ahmed Najar, a political analyst, argued that the primary obstacle is the refusal of Eisenkot and his partners to recognize Palestinian citizens as legitimate political partners. He noted that 67 seats exist outside Netanyahu’s bloc. Yet the political system behaves as if 19 of those seats do not count. Najar stated that Palestinians will judge any successor by policy rather than personality. They will look for an end to the genocide in Gaza, a halt to settlement expansion, and recognition of Palestinian freedom.

Netanyahu faces two main options to retain power. Yossi Mekelberg, a consulting fellow at Chatham House, said Netanyahu could try to persuade Eisenkot’s camp to form a coalition with him. Meanwhile, he could delegitimize the Arab parties to hinder an alternative government. Flaschenberg suggested Netanyahu will likely push for a second election. He believes turnout among Arab voters will drop and the opposition will stagnate. Netanyahu may also attempt to poach one or two parties from the change bloc, specifically Benny Gantz’s camp and Lieberman, though current signs suggest they will not join him.