Poll Shows Democrats Leading in Three Pennsylvania Districts Ahead of Vote

Democrats are leading in three Pennsylvania congressional districts and tied in a fourth, according to an Inquirer/New York Times/Siena University poll, putting Republicans at risk of losing up to four seats that are central to control of the U.S. House. The survey has Democrat Bob Harvie with a narrow edge over five-term Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st Congressional District.

Spending in the races has topped $121 million in ads. President Donald Trump's and Elon Musk's political organizations have invested, and Gov. Josh Shapiro leads by double digits in each of the four districts while Trump polls deeply underwater there. Shapiro is campaigning with the Democratic candidates in all four districts over the next four days. House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to appear with at least one Republican candidate Wednesday, and Trump has no current plans to visit Pennsylvania.

Fitzpatrick, the last Republican representing a congressional district in the Philadelphia suburbs, rallied Saturday at a Teamsters union hall in Northeast Philadelphia, where he drew unusual labor support for a member of his party. "I just want to thank you for being salt of the earth, beer and blue jeans, organic human beings," Fitzpatrick told attendees. He votes with Trump and the GOP roughly 70 percent of the time, the least of any House Republican. Trump has not endorsed him, though the president's MAGA Inc. super PAC has spent at least $100,000 on his behalf.

Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, held a town hall Saturday at Ben Franklin Middle School in Levittown after a planned debate did not take place. He fielded voter questions for about 90 minutes on affordability, data centers, election security and education. "I have fought and won every time. I didn't get into this race to lose," Harvie said when voters asked about his visibility in the district. Shapiro is scheduled to appear with him at a rally in Doylestown this weekend.

In the Harrisburg-based 10th District, Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is airing an ad claiming Democrat Janelle Stelson exposed herself to a neighbor's grandchild. Stelson's campaign calls the claim false and says it is considering legal action while Perry declines to provide proof. Perry said the ad "shows a clear pattern of Stelson's poor judgment, character and behavior that voters have every right to know."

The Lehigh Valley-based 7th District race between Democrat Bob Brooks, a union leader and retired firefighter, and Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie carries $31.8 million in ad spending, the second-most expensive congressional race in Pennsylvania. The two candidates have exchanged cease-and-desist letters over ads and canceled their only planned debate. "My biggest problem is that people actually believe this nonsense," Brooks said Thursday at a union hall in Bethlehem. "And 'bad Bob' doesn't really exist."