Rosstat leak: 412,576 Russian war deaths recorded

Leaked records from Rosstat indicate that 412,576 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine.

Cyber Partisans and Silent Crow, hacker groups linked to the Belarusian opposition and Ukraine, obtained the data from the state statistics agency. The collection includes more than 11 million death certificates with details on age, residence, and location of death. The groups announced the breach on November 1 and released the files over the weekend. Rosstat confirmed the hack but stated that sensitive information was not accessed.

Moscow treats military casualty figures as a state secret and has not published a total since the early months of the invasion. The leaked figures align with previous estimates. British intelligence assessed in September that approximately 500,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Mediazona, an independent Russian outlet, has identified nearly 286,000 dead by name and estimates the true figure is closer to half a million. Janis Kluge, head of the Russia and Eurasia division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noted that the data appears authentic and represents the largest leak regarding Russian casualties. He added that a typical six-month delay between death and official recording means the current toll is likely closer to 500,000.

The data reveals uneven distribution of losses across Russia. In Buryatia, Tuva, and Zabaykalsky Krai, war-related deaths accounted for about one-third of all deaths among men aged 18 to 49 between the start of the invasion and mid-2024. In Moscow and St Petersburg, the comparable figure was about 10 percent. Monthly battlefield deaths peaked in late 2024 and 2025, exceeding 15,000 per month, or roughly 500 per day. Kluge described the daily toll as shocking. The total number of Russian military deaths in this conflict is estimated to be more than eight times the combined toll of all Soviet and Russian wars since the end of the Second World War.

A person familiar with Vladimir Putin’s thinking suggested the scale of losses may harden his resolve rather than push for a settlement. The person said Putin views settling for less than his desired terms as a betrayal of himself and the Russian people.

Senior Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are scheduled to meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for the first US-brokered peace talks in nine months. Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are expected to attend. Neither Putin nor Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be present. Witkoff stated on X that the agenda will cover post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, and humanitarian issues. European governments are concerned the talks may expand to include Moscow’s demands for a reduced NATO presence near its borders. France’s foreign minister said Paris would participate, a claim the Kremlin denied.