US universities admit 15% fewer doctoral students as global rankings slide

Top research universities in the United States have admitted 15 percent fewer doctoral students for the coming fall semester compared to previous years. The Association of American Universities, which represents the nation’s leading research institutions, reported that many programs stopped accepting new applicants entirely. This contraction affects fields critical to the economy, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

The decline in doctoral admissions accompanies a broader drop in international standing. The number of American institutions in the top 100 of the QS World University Rankings has fallen from 31 to 26 over the past decade. In the Leiden Rankings, which measure academic productivity through published journal articles, Chinese universities now occupy seven of the top 10 spots. Harvard University, which held the first position in the world in that metric, has slipped to third place.

China is outpacing the United States in the production of advanced degrees. The National Science Foundation reports that Chinese universities produce nearly 50 percent more Ph.D. graduates in science, technology, engineering, and math fields annually than their American counterparts. An analysis by fDi Intelligence found that China’s STEM Ph.D. production doubled in the 15 years ending in 2022. During that same period, U.S. output rose by only 41 percent.

International students, who once provided a vital financial subsidy to American campuses, are arriving at a slower rate. A survey by the Institute of International Education found that nearly six in 10 universities reported a drop in international applications for the academic year beginning this fall. More than 40 percent of institutions described the decline in graduate applications as substantial. NAFSA and JB International project that the drop of 111,000 international students this autumn will cost the U.S. economy 3.4 billion dollars.

The exodus of current talent compounds the issue. A survey by the journal Nature found that three in four U.S.-based researchers have considered leaving the country. Another survey by researchers at Harvard, MIT, and other institutions revealed that about half of Ph.D. students and postdoctoral researchers in bioengineering are likely to leave academia. At least 85 scholars have moved to China since the start of 2024, according to reporting by CNN. This group includes Nobel Prize-winning chemist Omar Yaghi, who is leaving the University of California, Berkeley, for Tsinghua University to establish an institute focused on using AI for material development.

Funding uncertainty drives much of this movement. The Trump administration’s 2027 budget request proposes cutting spending on the National Science Foundation by 55 percent and the National Institutes of Health by 13 percent, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Steven Durlauf, an economist at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, described the current trajectory as suicidal. He noted that the postwar period proved the value of federal support for academic research. Phil Baty, chief global affairs officer at Times Higher, said the slow diminution of rankings makes the U.S. less attractive to top talent.

New regulations further tighten the environment for students and faculty. A rule restricting international students to four years in the United States took effect on Sept. 15. This limit is shorter than the time required to complete many doctoral programs. Rona Aydin, founder of Oriel Admissions, said prospective applicants who previously considered only American schools are now looking at backup countries. The combination of rising costs, visa delays, and political scrutiny is reshaping where the world’s top students choose to study and work.