2026 midseason rookie grades: Ranking the early hits, misses and biggest surprises

Eight weeks into the NFL season, we're starting to get some answers about the 2026 first-round rookie class. Some players look exactly like we thought they would when they came out of college. Others have been pleasant surprises. And then there are those still struggling with some of the same issues that showed up on their college tape.

We evaluated these rookies after four weeks on the With the First Pick podcast, it was our most popular episode this fall, and Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles were among the early standouts. David Bailey was still finding his footing, Rueben Bain Jr. was battling injuries, and Dillon Thieneman looked like one of the league's most promising young safeties.

A month later, some of those evaluations look a little (and, in some cases, a lot) different.

These are our first-half grades for all 32 first-round picks from the 2026 class, based on everything we've seen through eight weeks. Production matters, but so do injuries, expectations and what the tape reveals. We're also revisiting our original scouting reports from the 2026 draft cycle to see which traits have translated, which concerns have followed these players to the NFL, and where we might have missed something. And because good players aren't limited to the first round, we've also graded 10 rookies drafted on Days 2 and 3 who have already made their mark.

1. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders: INCOMPLETE Mendoza finally got on the field in Week 5 mop-up duty vs. the Patriots. He was a tidy 6 of 8 for 48 yards. For now, veteran Kirk Cousins remains the starter, but as the losses pile up, Mendoza will likely get his chance to be QB1.

2. David Bailey, EDGE, Jets: B Bailey has taken a noticeable step forward after an uneven start, highlighted by a three-sack performance against Cleveland. I loved his explosive first step, speed-to-power, inside spin and relentless motor at Texas Tech, and we're seeing all of it in the NFL. What's been particularly encouraging is his development against the run, where Jets coaches have praised his discipline and ability to handle responsibilities beyond rushing the passer. He's becoming the complete defender New York envisioned when it drafted him second overall.