Newport Beach prepares for weekend swell as coastal communities brace for high surf

Coastal communities in Southern California are preparing for a period of high surf as a substantial swell moves toward the region this weekend. The National Weather Service has issued an advisory for the event, which is expected to impact west-facing beaches from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Meteorologists indicate that the ocean conditions will be notable, particularly for areas in Orange County and the South Bay.

Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, stated that the west and northwest swell will arrive on Saturday and persist into Sunday. He reported that some beaches in Orange County are likely to see wave sets ranging from eight to nine feet. While the water may be rough, Westerink noted that the timing of the event is favorable regarding tide levels. The current week features mid-range tides, which sits between the higher tides observed last week and the king tides scheduled for the end of the month.

Westerink explained that the relatively lower tides this weekend should help keep the risk of coastal flooding manageable for the time being. He described the current period as a middle ground in the tidal cycle, offering a buffer against the most extreme water levels. This positioning provides a temporary reprieve for low-lying coastal areas before the more significant tidal events of late November arrive.

Specific forecasts from Surfline predict waves between eight and ten feet at the Manhattan Beach Pier on Saturday. In Hermosa Beach, residents and visitors can expect waves in the range of six to eight feet during the same period. These figures align with the broader regional outlook, suggesting a dynamic and active ocean environment across the entire Southern California coast over the next few days.

For Newport Beach, this weekend serves as a critical test for the city’s recent infrastructure improvements. Mike Ure, the Marine Safety Battalion Chief for the city, described the situation as one of optimistic caution. The city has been actively hauling in sand and constructing berms to protect against high surf and the king tides anticipated around the Thanksgiving holiday. The upcoming swell will determine how effectively these sand barriers can withstand winter west swells.

Ure noted that the direction of this specific swell differs from the south swells that caused severe flooding on the Balboa Peninsula in early October. Those previous events saw waves surge across the sand, entering streets, homes, and businesses. The current west-facing waves tend to be more selective for Newport’s coastline, featuring longer-interval groundswells that may pass over much of the beach without causing the same level of widespread inundation.

Despite the potentially less damaging direction, officials remain vigilant about erosion. Ure expressed hope that the swell direction might help return some of the sand that was pushed northward to Huntington Beach during the summer. He characterized the event as a useful test run, expecting some run-up on the beach but relying on the newly built berms to contain it. The lower average tide levels this week provide a controlled environment to observe how larger surf interacts with the protected shoreline.

Beyond the immediate wave action, broader oceanographic factors are influencing water levels in the region. Warmer than normal water conditions, driven by an El Nino and Kelvin waves rising from the equator, have pushed sea levels to record-breaking heights. Ure reported that water levels are currently about 20 inches higher than usual. This elevation has already caused bouts of flooding in bays and harbors where low seawalls offer limited protection against the raised seawater.

An additional variable enters the picture with the latest storm system expected to bring rain to the region. Ure pointed out that low-pressure storms can cause water levels to rise more significantly than many residents realize. This phenomenon, often referred to as storm surge, involves the low-pressure system lifting water levels further. This effect could add several inches to the already elevated tides, compounding the risks associated with the high surf advisory.

The National Weather Service high surf advisory remains in effect from 4 p.m. on Friday until 10 a.m. on Sunday. During this window, coastal residents are advised to monitor conditions and exercise caution near the water. The combination of large swells, elevated base water levels, and potential storm surge creates a complex scenario that local officials are monitoring closely to ensure safety and assess the durability of coastal defenses.