Latino voters shift to Democrats in 2026
Mexico's president links immigration raids and racial tension to the party switch seen in Tuesday's midterms.
By Tomas Gonzalez ·
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated on Thursday that immigration enforcement actions and racial prejudice in the United States likely drove Latino voters toward the Democratic Party during Tuesday's midterm elections. She made the comments during her morning press briefing, responding to questions about the connection between federal operations and the electoral results that gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress.
Sheinbaum said it was logical to think that racism and raids targeting people based on skin color and ethnic origin influenced the decision. "Yes, it is very probable. I don't have the data, but it is like logical to think that something influenced the Latino women and men who have the right to vote in the United States to vote now for the Democratic Party," she said. She noted that some analyses indicate Latino voters, including those of Mexican descent who supported President Donald Trump in 2024, chose Democratic candidates this time.
The political shift occurred against a backdrop of rising tensions regarding immigration policy. According to data from Mexico's Foreign Affairs Secretariat, 17 Mexicans have died in the United States during operations or while in the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, since 2025. Sheinbaum pointed to these figures as context for the changing sentiment among the community.
Polling data supports the observation of a party switch, though economic factors remain dominant. A survey by UnidosUS showed that 67 percent of Latino voters backed Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives. Among Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024, 17 percent supported candidates from his party in this cycle. However, the poll identified the cost of living and inflation as the primary concern for 58 percent of Latino voters. A smaller share, 27 percent, cited immigration policies and the actions of ICE as their main issue.
The election results produced victories for two Mexican-origin Democrats seeking executive power. Xavier Becerra was elected governor of California, and Gina Hinojosa won the governorship of Texas. Sheinbaum highlighted these wins on Wednesday, stating that the outcomes reflected a "feeling of the people" in the United States. The midterm elections concluded on Tuesday, solidifying the Democratic majority in the federal legislature while also shifting state leadership in two major economies.
The connection between immigration enforcement and voting behavior remains a point of discussion among political analysts. While Sheinbaum cited the raids as a probable factor, the UnidosUS data suggests that economic pressures continued to outweigh immigration policy for a majority of the demographic. The 17 percent shift from Trump to Democrats among previous Trump supporters represents a notable change in the coalition, though it did not result in a majority for any single issue. The deaths of 17 citizens in ICE custody since 2025 stand as a specific metric cited by Mexican officials to illustrate the stakes of the policy debate.
