Oil holds at $115 as Tehran says strikes will not force policy change

Brent crude traded near $115 a barrel early Monday, maintaining high prices as Iran declared its strategic posture would not change regardless of future American military action. Iranian officials stated that indirect negotiations with the United States are continuing, even as President Donald Trump considered whether to resume attacks. The stability of the price came despite recent disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflict in the region.

The joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, designated as Epic Fury, began on Feb. 28. On Friday, Trump suggested the U.S. might launch another wave of attacks. He also asserted that American forces now control the Strait of Hormuz. Speculation regarding new strikes increased as a third U.S. aircraft carrier group moved into the region ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for next Tuesday.

Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, appeared at a televised event in Tehran to address the situation. He stated that the prospect of new warfare had not altered his government's calculations. "Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said. He added that Washington and Israel had attempted similar strategies twice before and would see no different results this time. Esmaeil Baqaei, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, confirmed that messages are still being sent to the U.S. through intermediaries, although direct talks have stalled for weeks.

Supply concerns drove energy markets higher late last week. The Northern Hemisphere is approaching winter, a period when demand for gas typically rises. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a tanker leaving the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile on Friday, which disabled the vessel. The crew was reported safe. Iran previously claimed to have struck at least four tankers in the area on Thursday, though those claims lacked independent confirmation.

Regional leaders are attempting to lower tensions. Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir, and Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin were scheduled to arrive in Tehran on Monday. They were set to hold security talks with Iranian officials, including security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Rayed Krimly, the Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy, said the visit supports de-escalation efforts backed by Qatar and Pakistan. These diplomatic moves come eight months after the war began in the region.

Violence continued in Yemen on Sunday. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis toward Riyadh. The coalition also destroyed two missile launchers in Sanaa. The Houthis claimed they hit Riyadh's international airport with a missile shortly after flights resumed. They also said they struck oil pumping stations with drones. Earlier attacks this month had closed the airport for more than two weeks and forced Saudi Arabia to postpone its flagship investment conference until 2027.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran and its proxies might attack to disrupt the upcoming elections. He told the public, "Don't test us." Defense Minister Israel Katz dismissed a Channel 12 report claiming a clash between Netanyahu and Army Chief Eyal Zamir over a new military directive. Katz called the report "entirely baseless." Netanyahu had previously labeled the story "rubbish." The Iranian foreign ministry stated that the outcome of the Israeli election would make no difference to Tehran's plans.