Brazil Election: Lula Wins Fourth Term by Narrow Margin

Brazil’s electoral court declared Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the winner of the presidential runoff on Sunday.

With all votes counted, Lula secured 51.8 percent of the total, a lead of nearly 4.4 million votes over his rival, Flávio Bolsonaro. This victory marks Lula’s fourth term as president, with the next mandate beginning on January 5, 2027. The result maintains a degree of independence for Latin America’s largest economy from the United States, where President Donald Trump has imposed higher tariffs. Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, joins Donald Trump and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega as the oldest current heads of state in the Americas, all aged 80 or older.

The election process was disrupted by a late ruling from Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin. Zanin ordered polling stations to remain open for two extra hours just three minutes before the scheduled closing time. Both candidates requested the extension; Lula cited transportation issues in São Paulo and Salvador, while Bolsonaro pointed to heavy rains in the south. Bolsonaro stated he intends to seek an annulment of the election due to this extension. The delay pushed back the final vote tally by two hours, and it remained unclear how many stations actually stayed open past the original deadline.

Lula addressed his supporters immediately after the court’s announcement, thanking the Brazilian people and pledging to respect all citizens regardless of gender or religion. He criticized his opponent’s campaign, stating, "This was a defeat for denialism and lies. I must confess that every time I attended a debate, I felt embarrassed." Lula reinforced his stance on national sovereignty, declaring, "This country will not accept being anyone's backyard." Celebration scenes erupted in major cities, with supporters gathering in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. In Rio, a woman in red shouted at men wearing Bolsonaro’s yellow and green colors as cars honked in the streets.

This outcome reverses a regional trend where right-of-center candidates aligned with the U.S. have been gaining power. The victory leaves both Brazil and Mexico, the two most populous nations in Latin America, under left-of-center leadership. Brazil’s economy, valued at 2.6 trillion U.S. dollars annually, is positioned to remain independent of Washington despite tariff pressures. Rodrigo Valentim, a 51-year-old Bolsonaro supporter and businessman, expressed concern that another Lula government would harm the economy. He said, "I don't understand how people can vote for Lula. The country is collapsing." Bolsonaro had previously won the first round by more than 2.2 million votes, making this the first time since 1985 that the runner-up in the first round won the presidency.

The election was heavily influenced by voter concerns over the cost of living and public security. Bolsonaro campaigned on a tough-on-crime platform and promised to lower food prices, while Lula invested in incentives to attract undecided voters. Both candidates faced suspicions of corruption involving family members or allies. Lula, who began his career in the 1970s as a union leader, previously served two terms from 2003 to 2010. He was later convicted of corruption and spent 580 days in prison before his sentence was annulled. He won the presidency again in 2022, narrowly defeating Jair Bolsonaro. This latest win is likely to be the final victory of his long political career.