Likud Leads Israeli Vote but Lacks Seats for Government

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party finished ahead of all other parties in the election held Tuesday. The result leaves his bloc with 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. This total falls eight seats short of the 61 required to form a stable government. The party saw a sharp drop in support compared to its current representation in the legislature.

The Arab political parties posted the largest gains of the election. Their combined representation nearly doubled to 19 seats. Both Netanyahu and his centrist rival Gadi Eisenkot have previously ruled out including Arab-led parties in their coalitions. This outcome creates a difficult path to government formation for either major camp.

Eisenkot claimed victory in the early hours of Wednesday. He stated that the public had rejected Netanyahu and voted for change. His statement came while exit polls briefly showed his bloc leading. As final counts came in, his bloc’s projected total settled at 48 seats. The “change bloc” includes Eisenkot’s Yashar party, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats.

Netanyahu maintained that the final results were pending. He told supporters that real data would arrive within 48 hours. He confirmed that Likud remained the largest single party in the state. “It is simply forbidden that we should endanger Israel and establish a government that leans on Arab parties that are anti-Zionist,” he said. He urged the creation of a strong national right-wing government.

Voter turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest level since 1999. Eisenkot argued that such high participation made a repeat election a mistake. He said his partners were working to establish a Zionist and stable government. Naftali Bennett, head of the second-largest party in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, confirmed that parties were coordinating. He declared that Netanyahu had lost and that the government associated with October 7 would go home.

Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra’am party, said he was interested in joining Eisenkot’s bloc. He noted that a senior official from the right-wing bloc had also contacted him regarding cooperation. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, called the vote historic. He said the public gave the Arab parties an unequivocal vote of confidence and demanded that the bloodshed government leave power.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich urged caution in assessing the outcome. He said the bloc might grow once soldiers’ votes were counted. “I see that the Arabs are celebrating tonight. I’m telling you and them, we will not let them celebrate,” he said. Analysts noted that the large turnout of Arab voters, who make up about 20 percent of the population, was the day’s biggest surprise.

Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at Hebrew University, suggested that constant incitement against Arab citizens by figures like Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir may have motivated the high turnout. He noted that some view the participation as a Zionist victory for inclusion in the Jewish state. Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University said Netanyahu performed better than pre-election polls predicted. However, he noted that Netanyahu cannibalized his own bloc, shifting voters away from other right-wing parties. Rynhold concluded that unless there is a massive change, Netanyahu does not have a government.

Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, stated that the change bloc had won. He said the Israeli public fired Netanyahu and the Likud. “Now we must ensure that those dismissals take effect. We must form a change government and we must do so quickly,” he said. Lapid, Bennett’s partner in B’Yachad, described the Netanyahu bloc’s result as a crushing defeat and a total collapse.